SCHOLARLY WORK
Articles, Books and Chapters
CHAD: HUMAN FERTILITY, CROP PRODUCTION AND CHANGING WEATHER PATTERNS
The subject of this paper is the effect of changing weather patterns on human fertility in Chad, Sahelian Africa. There is a body of literature on the effect of extreme weather events-usually associated with largescale mortality and human fertility. However, there is less of a body of literature on the effects of less extreme changing weather patterns on human fertility. We adapt Becker’s model of demand for children to a rural Chadian context and test the model with Chadian data and explore whether any effect is through biological or agricultural mechanisms. Chad has known substantial warming since the late 1960s, hence we use rising heat as a proxy for changing weather patterns. Using GIS-coded fertility and weather data, we look for correlations between the birth rate and the number of days in a month above 31 degrees Celsius, while partitioning data by climatic zone and by level of staple crop intensity. We then run the same models with sorghum and millet (Chadian staple crops) as the dependent variables. We find a general pattern that the same planting season high temperature days that have a negative effect on the birth rate, also have a negative effect on both sorghum and millet yields that is driven by the Sahel region. This accords with our adapted Beckerian theoretical model and provides tentative evidence of an agricultural mechanism by which heat affects human fertility.
ADONAIS
Adonais begins as he stands on the Iberian Peninsula and looks out towards the coast of North Africa, fighting for the strength to go with his inner leadings and follow a destiny that lies beyond that coast.
The story observes the young Friar as he makes his journey from the Peninsula’s southern tip through the Alpujarra to a Gharnata that is feeling a new rise in sectarian tension and is hearing news of violent events across the border in Christian Sevilla.
In Gharnata he meets his childhood friend Miriam in the house of Rabbi Andrew, the spiritual head of Gharnata’s distinguished Jewish population. They agree to share the journey together to her forest community that is on the way to his final destination which is the Christian frontier city of Jaen. These young orphan children who grew up as closest friends and confidantes but have blossomed into beautiful adults have a deep and soul searching time of facing a lot of their confusion over their adult relationship which causes, especially Adonais to face some of the ghosts of his past.
Miriam’s joyous wedding occurs in the vibrant community of which she is a key part and the whole event provides cathartic, healing for many of the participants.
After the wedding Adonais continues his journey to Jaen as the shocking, violent and murderous events of June 1391 in Sevilla become the focus.
Adonais the character symbolizes the way in which a true and wholesome spirituality can rebuild a life broken by hatred and religious sectarianism. The story is set in the late 14th Century Iberian Peninsula, and evokes the tension and intrigue of the time as well as capturing its beguiling mystery.
In the novel Adonais, the author has managed to survey an extremely dark, treacherous and violent era in history and show a story of the triumph of hope and goodness over that same darkness. The novel explores many themes related to the history of the period, the interaction between different religious groups and the tension between inner spirituality and outer, sectarian religion.
https://www.amazon.com/Adonais-Jake-Organ-ebook/dp/B007MCT424
CLIMATE CHANGE, FERTILITY AND SAHELIAN DEMOGRAPHICS
Climate change, especially in Africa’s central Sahel region, is occurring in the context of exponential population rise with countries like Chad and Niger still in the “early expanding phase” of demographic growth. While many experts predict a mid-century climate and demographic ‘mega crisis’ for the region; our paper looks at the effect of the rising temperature, through the medium of increased temperature and precipitation variability upon fertility and hence demographic trends as we advance into the 21st century. The paper uses climate data and DHS (Demographic and Health Survey) data from Chad, which has demonstrated significant warming since the late 1960’s. We create a weather shock variable that is defined as a t>2 departure from the post-1960 mean of temperature and precipitation by month, year, and GIS location. We regress the following years’ human fertility outcomes by month and GIS location upon these shocks when occurring in the growing months of June, July, and August. We find that the effect is highly negatively significant with a one-year lag. Then we go on to look for the mechanism behind this significance; the literature suggesting that climate effects fertility through biological or food security related channels. We then regress the male/female sex ratio on the same weather shocks to see if there is a rise in miscarriages among male fetuses due to either the direct effect of heat or as an effect of increased female malnutrition. By running both these models with weather shocks from Chad’s dry season months of December, January, and February, we discern whether the significance is driven by pure temperature or by some sort of food security/household income channel. Though we see some dry season effect, most of the significance is driven by the shocks in the growing season and with the significant effect of these shocks on the sex ratio, we can assume that increased female malnutrition is a key driver of both the rise in miscarriages and the drop-in fertility. We then run these models within each of the three Chadian climate zones: the Sahara, the Sahel, and the Sudan. Seeing that the Sahel zone is the major driver for the significance of our models, we discuss if this can have implications for the wider African Sahel.
November 2022
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